New World order

New World order
Russia, China jockey for position as United States pushes its agenda

July 24, 2001

The new U.S. ambassador to China is promising closer ties between "two great peoples." He has pledged his best efforts to "bring us closer." Concerns remain about human rights abuses and military balance, and tension continues over China’s interception of a U.S. spy plane and the upcoming espionage trial of a U.S.-based scholar.

This comes only a few days after China and Russia signed a cooperation pact to offset U.S. global influence. Although the "friendship treaty" states that it is "not directed against third countries," the timing, as the U.S. proclaimed success in a test of its missile-defense program, is hardly coincidental.

And on the third side of the triangle, Russian President Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush announced a surprise agreement Sunday for new arms control talks that would link discussion of missile defenses to talks on shrinking nuclear stockpiles. The two leaders still must bridge decades of mistrust over nuclear negotiations.

So what does all this jockeying mean?

Putin and Chinese leader Jiang Zemin issued a joint statement expressing hope for a "just and rational new international order" to reflect their concept of a multipolar world led by the United Nations rather than Washington. Between the lines is a tacit acknowledgment of U.S. status as the world’s sole remaining superpower. An alliance between the two could balance that power to a certain extent — if, in a crisis, the two countries could act as one. That’s far from a sure thing, because they have their own tensions.

It also means that both Putin and Jiang understand that a closer alliance with the United States could benefit one of them and leave the other out in the cold.

China cannot afford to snuggle up too closely to Russia. China’s annual trade volume with the United States is $115 billion; trade between Russia and China last year totaled only $8 billion, some of that in used Russian weaponry. Russia, too, must be cautious, because it depends on the United States for a substantial percentage of its food, including huge imports of grain.

Putin’s willingness to talk about the U.S. missile defense system is also an admission that Russia really cannot do much about it. If he had hoped to capitalize on Bush’s inexperience, he may have reckoned without the depth of experience the president has assembled behind him. The United States is negotiating from a position of power, both technologically and financially. The Soviet Union could not compete; neither can Russia on her own.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that Bush has no international worries. Testing missile defense in defiance of prior agreements is a provocative move; after all, such testing would not be necessary if scientists were certain the system would work. Even the staunchest of Republicans have to admit to some private concerns about Bush’s ability as a negotiator; he needs to know when to stand back and let the professionals take over. He needs to understand that Russia and China want to talk about balance, not dominance.

Now is not the time to bluster. While everyone is talking calmly, there’s a great deal of behind-the scenes maneuvering, a considerable amount of shifting and shuffling. The United States needs to hold to its long-range vision and convince Russia and China to sign on. We cannot get caught between the two.