A 1998 report predicted catastrophic wildfires would occur at Mesa Verde National Park unless measures were taken to reduce accumulated dead wood and brush, particularly in areas around ruins.

In 1997, experts studied how to protect Mesa Verde’s archaeological treasures from fire. The archaeological assessment team accurately predicted that unless preventive measures were taken, many of Mesa Verde’s Ancestral Puebloan sites would be threatened, if not destroyed.

"Over the course of 25 years, approximately 25 percent of Mesa Verde has burned," stated the report. "If this trend continues, as the ASHFAP (Archaeological Sites Hazardous Fuels Assessment Program) team believes it will, nearly half of the Park will have burned within a half-century, and most of the Park will burn within a century."

Even before the worst of the 2000 fire season is expected to hit Mesa Verde, two catastrophic wildfires have burned close to 40 percent of the 52,000-acre park.

The archaeologist and fuel technician that made up the team studied 27 major archaeological sites within the park, rated their vulnerability to fire, and made specific recommendations to thin vegetation.

Earlier this summer, the park completed an environmental assessment required in order to thin forested cover around 25 sites studied by the team.

But the Bircher and Pony fires took little notice of government bureaucracy, and whipped through the park before the crews could thin around the sites. To date, the park has cut down trees and brush around only one of the recommended sites, Spruce Tree House.

Several of the studied sites were located on Wetherill Mesa, which the Pony Fire burned this weekend.

Long House, Step House, Jug House, Spring House, and Double House were exposed to the Pony Fire on Wetherill, but reportedly suffered minor damage.

One site, Mushroom, was reported to have burned, but officials have yet to tally the total damage to archaeological sites from either of the fires.

In 1997, the assessment team expressed concern about the level of fuels building up in the park, just waiting to burn.

"A century of fire suppression has led to a high accumulation of combustible fuels on and around irreplaceable archeological remains," the experts wrote. The team estimated that most of the mature piñon-juniper forest in the park could date to the time of the Anasazi abandonment, nearly 700 years ago.

But when the Anasazi inhabited the park area, they frequently cleared the southern areas of the mesa for firewood, slash-and-burn agriculture, and building materials.

". . . (W)e do not believe the Anasazi had a problem with heavy fuel loads," they wrote. "Put yet another way, the south half of the MEVE (Mesa Verde) was far more intensely managed, used (or abused) in prehistoric time than it has been in the 20th century."

Now that fire crews have been defending the visited areas of the park, more thinning has occurred, and George San Miguel, Mesa Verde’s natural resource manager, said officials are "light-years" ahead of where they need to be. None of the archaeological sites, however, have been thinned other than by the fire that burned forage on Wetherill Mesa.

Park officials say that thinning projects take time because of lengthy environmental assessments, a shortage of workers, and costs. It costs between $2,500 and $3,000 to thin an acre by hand, versus between $300 and $400 per acre for a prescribed fire. Usually, an area has to be thinned before prescribed fires can safely be implemented.

The park receives funding annually from FIREPRO, a program designed to help reduce hazardous fuels in the park. This money goes to help a handful of seasonal employees who conduct the labor-intensive projects.

The crews must thin trees by hand and with sensitivity to both the ecosystem and the park’s aesthetics.

In 1993, the park completed an environmental assessment to thin hazardous fuels around park headquarters, along roadsides, and visitor facilities.

However, when park workers started to thin around the roadside, park employees voiced complaints that the natural roadside aesthetics were being damaged.

"There was a natural emotional reaction against the plan. There’s always a twinge of anxiety when people talk about cutting down trees in the national park," said San Miguel.

Thinning the entire park would be virtually impossible, explain officials. "We justify thinning because it is limited in scope and targeted to specific needs. It is not a general treatment for the entire park," said San Miguel.

The Pony and Bircher fires burned portions of the rugged southern half of the park, some of which is considered wilderness and off-limits to most human activity.

Since 1934, Mesa Verde has seen five large wildfires. The most recent before this year, Chapin 5, destroyed a petroglyph panel and damaged other major ruins.

But the 1997 team said that Chapin 5 wouldn’t be the end of the park’s problems.

"Wildfires at MEVE (Mesa Verde) will continue to worsen. A large fire will occur in the Chapin Mesa Headquarters vicinity, and the only question is when. The ASHFAP team believes that there is a very high probability that it will occur within the next half century," they stated.

The team asserted that the only way to protect the sites from large catastrophic fires was to thin down-slope from the sites, creating a defensible buffer zone.

San Miguel agreed that wildfires are growing larger.

"In general, fires are getting bigger," he said. "They’re getting harder and more difficult to control. Even with the technological resources we have, these fires have basically gone out on their own."

San Miguel said there is little question that thinning trees is important to preventing fires.

"When you reduce fuels — both living and deadwood — there’s no question that that’s going to slow fire. The fewer trees, the more effective you are."

Yet there are biological concerns that the park must consider. San Miguel said that thinning the forage allows more sunlight to reach the ground, which raises soil temperatures. Wind levels increase, snow melts more quickly, and as a result, a more arid atmosphere is created.

He said biologists have observed that after thinning, some mature trees have died, and scientists are not exactly sure why. Some have speculated that a change in the micro-climate or perhaps fungus or insects have been killing the trees.

"The park service tries to make every management decision based on science," said San Miguel, "but it takes time to get the science in."

Environmentalists say there is no need for humans to take on massive thinning projects in the forest.