Old-growth forest at the beginning of 2000 will be "open country, early successional growth" at the start of 2001, according to Mesa Verde Natural Resource Manager George San Miguel, who spoke in Mancos at a Thursday evening fire briefing.

San Miguel said the vegetation burned by the Bircher Fire included scrub oak as old as 100 years, piñon pine over 200 years old, and junipers over 300 years old. The replacement vegetation will start with grasses and shrubs, and only very gradually will the major trees come back.

The immediate concern, he said will be to stabilize the soil on steep slopes. With no vegetation to hold it in place, the topsoil will be quickly washed away in late summer rains. Along the east face of Mesa Verde, this will result in heavy sediment in the Mancos River, which has already had several hundred chubs and suckers killed when fire retardant (which contains fertilizer components) washed or was dropped into the river.

Another concern will be the invasion of exotic (non-native) plants into the burn area.

Recalling the Chapin 5 Fire in 1996, San Miguel said, "Reseeding with native species was one of the best methods we had for controlling weeds." Timing is all-important in getting reseeding accomplished in time to beat the exotics, he added.

Many of the animals that lived in the burn area will have to relocate, and that may be difficult. A territory outside the park suitable for a species displaced by the fire may already be occupied and the refugee may not be able to displace the established resident.

Describing the probable appearance of the burn area in the near future, the natural-resource specialist predicted grasses and flowering shrubs will abound, as well the animals that feed on them — rabbits, elk, deer, rodents and others. Seed-eating birds who tolerate open grassland conditions will also be there, along with the eagles and hawks who will be better able to see smaller birds and grass-eating animals.

San Miguel listed wild hollyhock as one of the species in the park that lies dormant till heated by a fire, so there may be an abundance of hollyhocks next spring. The harvester ant also is a species that was observed in abundance right after the Chapin 5 fire.

Citing the work of Dr. Boris Kondrotief, a Colorado State University entomologist, San Miguel said, "Over 1,000 species (of insects) have been recovered from the area of burn."

There are several plant species that are endemic to the park, they are found nowhere else in the world. At least two of these, Cliff Palace milkvetch and Mesa Verde stickseed, are probably unaffected by the fire; San Miguel said their prime habitat is in the lower, more southern piñon-juniper forest in the areas around the main ruins, which have not burned.

For the same reason, "We have lost very little spotted-owl habitat in the park," he said.

In response to a question about reintroducing bighorn sheep to the park, he said the sheep like open county and there would be plenty of forage available, but the shortage of water may be a critical factor. The native bighorn-sheep population died out in the 1950s. They were reintroduced but "haven’t done well," and there is only a small population in the park now.