2001 jobless rate in county lowest since 1994

2001 jobless rate in county lowest since 1994

January 31, 2002

By Janelle Holden
Journal Staff Writer

Despite the recession that intensified following the Sept. 11 attacks, unemployment rates in Montezuma and Dolores counties fell last year to the lowest they’ve been since 1994.

The December unemployment rates have yet to be revised, but preliminary estimates are that unemployment in Montezuma County fell to 4.4 percent during 2001, compared to 5.3 percent in 2000. That’s still a point higher than the state average, but not as high as Dolores County, which averaged 6.5 percent during 2001.

The numbers are rising, however. In September 2001, unemployment was at 3.3 percent in Montezuma County; by December it had risen to a projected 5.8 percent.

Dolores County saw a similar rise, jumping from 5.6 percent in September to a projected 11.7 percent in December.

"What we found in the last few months is that it looks like the unemployment rates have been trending upwards, in both those counties, and that’s reflecting the same trend that we’re seeing statewide too — there has been an increase in the unemployment rate," said Bill La Grange, director of labor-market information at the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment.

Since the start of the national recession in March, unemployment in the state has risen by about 56,600 to 3.5 percent, considerably lower than the current 5.8 percent national unemployment rate.

County figures are not seasonally adjusted because the Department of Labor seasonally adjusts only the state unemployment rate. Currently, the state seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate is at 5.2 percent, the highest it has been since June 1993.

La Grange said he could not guess what effect it would have on the jobless statistics if the counties’ rates were seasonally adjusted.

State economists said that rural areas have been spared some of the impact of the recession because most of the economic slowdown occurred when telecommunications and high-tech companies laid off workers.

"I think the urban areas have been hit somewhat harder in most cases," said Michael Rose, a senior economist at the labor department. "A lot of the slowdown has been centered in telecommunications, high-tech, and manufacturing, and they tend to be largely concentrated in urban areas.

"I think for these areas (Montezuma and Dolores) you’re still looking at the largest components of these economies as tourism and service, and in some cases construction-related jobs, and although there has been some slowing I don’t know that they will get the same effect as the areas on the Front Range."

Rose said that some of the increase since September could also be due to normal winter job loss.

"The rate tends to move up seasonally in the winter in these areas so some of this rise is just normal seasonal fluctuation."

The Department of Labor bases its rates on the results of three surveys it plugs into a mathematical model: a current population survey, current employer survey, and the number of people who have filed unemployment-insurance claims.

The monthly survey of households shows that total resident employment in Colorado rose by 6,900 in December to 2,240,000. The monthly employment increase was the first since August.

Last year at this time, 2,666,9000 Coloradans were holding jobs.