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May 8, 2001
By Jim Mimiaga The chances of a rafting season this spring on the lower Dolores River look bleak, as officials report McPhee Reservoir is not likely to fill this year. Last summer’s drought, with its heavy irrigation demands, has left McPhee struggling to recover, said Vern Harrell of the Bureau of Reclamation. "That and high winds have been depleting the snowpack moisture, but we have made a lot of progress," Harrell said. The persistent dry weather in the summer and fall of 2000 left McPhee Reservoir at its lowest level ever. Down 30 feet, McPhee revealed miles of mud flats near the town of Dolores that stayed visible all winter long. As of May 1, the runoff forecast is at 83 percent of normal, based on a 30-year average, and shows the reservoir will be 31,000 short acre-feet of filling. But recent storms that have increased snowpack water content by one inch have yet to be factored into separate runoff models used by the bureau and the Dolores Water Conservancy District. By May 15, an updated forecast will be figured and both agencies will know more. Regardless of what happens now, water managers say there will be enough runoff and subsequent storage to handle irrigation demand. However, rafters and kayakers will not likely see a spill. "The chances are slim because that is a lot of water to make up by then," Harrell said. DWCD General Manager John Porter said, if there is a spill, it would be short and would occur at the end of May or beginning of June. DWCD estimates range from 14,000 acre-feet short of filling, to 43,000 acre-feet of spilling, although Porter pointed out the figures could be off by 60 percent either way. "In 1999, we had 60 percent more than we thought, and in 1989, 60 percent less than we thought," Porter said. "We’re on the borderline, but based on our current data, unless we have some big storms we will be short." Predicting runoff with complete accuracy is nearly impossible, officials say, considering the whims of Mother Nature. Ambiguous yet critical factors such as wind, air temperature, future storms, and rate of snowmelt all affect the levels in the state’s second largest lake body. This year the DWCD began using a new model that takes in more factors regarding historic weather patterns. When predictions are matched up against reality, they are closer than previous models, but Porter said more time is needed to determine their relative accuracy. Recent storms and cooler weather have decreased demand for irrigation, as water has not been delivered since early last week, Porter said. The lake has risen 20 feet since the winter thaw began, Porter said. More is expected, but according to Bureau of Reclamation models, McPhee will be seven feet short of filling. When calculations show runoff will exceed maximum capacity, a spill is managed for boaters. The predicted shortage leaves downstream boaters high and dry. "It’s disappointing to those wanting to use the river," said Dave Blaine, program director for Deer Hill Expeditions, out of Mancos. "We had to cancel one trip this year, and do not rely on it because the spring releases are not very predictable." Blaine said the current system makes it difficult to schedule trips in advance. He says more needs to be done to insure that all users of Dolores river water have fair access to the resource. "It would be nice to come up with a solution," Blaine said. "Now, it is so controlled. But there is a lot of potential for tourists dollars if the flows were higher and more sustained." |
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