A successful farm operation is forever at the mercy of a whimsical beast known as Supply and Demand. And this season that incorrigible monster's sidekick -- unrelenting rain -- has joined in to create a dire market situation for local alfalfa growers.

Growers and brokers are reporting that this year's harvest will be of lesser quality and quantity, as above average rainfall has many farmers still waiting for wet alfalfa to dry out. Typically by this time the county's 160,000 acres of alfalfa farms produce a third rotation of the crop. This is unlikely to happen now unless the weather dries out and the annual fall freeze ritual is substantially postponed.

That means farmers will feel the hit in their pocketbooks as less than desirable alfalfa, much of it suffering from mold, hits the market for a lesser price. Quality hay with a high nutritional value and no molding sells for top dollar, about $90 per ton, to dairy farmers across the west, especially Texas, McCabe said. (Yields range from between two and five tons per acre). The low supply this year of the prime grade alfalfa has created high demand as dairy buyers scramble to buy what there is.

If not, up to 50 percent of the local alfalfa crop this year will likely suffer some damage, he said.

The agriculture market is interdependent, and difficult to predict. Diary cows require alfalfa feed that has a very high nutritional value (relative protein feed value of 160 plus is the benchmark) in order to produce milk that meets the standards of today's dairy market. That's the product Montezuma County alfalfa growers are shooting for because of its good price, but this year producing it was nearly impossible due to the constant rain.

Farming is plagued with Catch 22s, and double-edged-sword-type decisions -- daunting commitments that are exaggerated by atypical weather cycles like we're experiencing now. For example, prime alfalfa must be cut and baled before it flowers and dips in nutritional value, but this cannot be done if it will lie in the fields, soaking in rain water. The result is lower quality alfalfa that has either grown too long, or is swathed and sits collecting mildew in the fields. (Wet alfalfa that is baled generates heat and may spontaneously combust, plus the wet conditions create a toxic mold that can hurt horses).

So far the lack of prime alfalfa here has pushed up the price for the little there is around $10 per ton, she said.

The market for grinder hay, or lower quality alfalfa, will be of high supply this year. And, brokers hope, that may be the saving grace for area producers. Feed lots buy up this type of product, add supplements, and sell it as food for (beef) cows and sheep, but it is bought from farmers at a lower price, between $65 and $80 per ton depending on quality.

Factor in the fate of alfalfa crops in Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and California. If those alfalfa crops suffer as those in Montezuma County have, then the demand for the lower quality crop may push up that price and help cover farmers' losses. But dealing in speculative futures is risky, and only time (and weather) will tell what the market will bear.